Statistical Uncertainty Analysis of Dynamic Models

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Statistical Uncertainty Analysis of Dynamic Models

25 - 29 November 2024

Wageningen Campus

 

Scope

Dynamic modelling plays a crucial role in life science research. A key feature of models is parameter uncertainty, arising from biological variation, or a lack of knowledge. It is generally hard to foresee how parameter uncertainty results in variation in the model predictions, especially when a model contains a lot of complex interactions. Some predictions may be sharp, others highly uncertain. Some parameter uncertainties make all predictions uncertain, whereas others may have no influence at all.

The purpose of this course is to make the participants familiar with general statistical concepts describing uncertainty, and methods to compute prediction uncertainty and sensitivity coming from uncertain parameter values. Methods are presented to obtain parameter uncertainty noisy measurement data. The methods are illustrated with realistic examples.

Programme

Each day consists partly of lectures and partly of hands-on training. Exercises will be carried out in R.

  • Day 1: uncertainty: terminology and concepts, sampling based sensitivity analyses, random sampling and Latin hypercube sampling from probability distributions: normal, lognormal, gamma, beta and uniform
  • Day 2: analysis of model output (based on sample), uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis, top and bottom marginal variance, i.e. first order sensitivity index
  • Day 3: work in teams on the first steps of a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for your own model or a case study
  • Day 4: uncertainty modelling, dynamic models, error propagation, estimating (updating) the parameters and their uncertainty when (new) data come available, Bayesian analysis
  • Day 5: Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), making predictions with their uncertainty from the MCMC output. Presentation of results of teamwork
General information
Target Group The course is aimed at PhD candidates and other academics
Group Size Min. 15, max. 24 participants
Course duration 5 days
Language of instruction English
Frequency of recurrence Every two years
Number of credits 1.5 ECTS
Lecturers Ir. Saskia Burgers (Biometris, Wageningen UR) and Dr. Simon van Mourik (Farm Technology group, Wageningen University)
Prior knowledge Participants are expected to have a good knowledge of basic statistics (like hypothesis testing, t- and F-tests and linear regression) and some experience in a statistical package (GenStat, R, SPSS, or likewise)
Location Wageningen University Campus
Accommodation Accommodation is not included in the fee of the course, but there are several possibilities in Wageningen. For non-WUR PE&RC members 50% of the accommodation costs can be reimbursed with a maximum of €30,- per night, please contact the PE&RC Office (office.pe@wur.nl) for more information.
For information try Short Stay Wageningen. Furthermore Airbnb offers several rooms in the area. Finally, there are a number of groups on Facebook where students announce sub-rent possibilities and things like that. Examples include: Wageningen Room Sub-rent, Wageningen Room Sublets, Room Rent Wageningen, and Wageningen Student Plaza. Note that besides the restaurants in Wageningen, there are also options to have dinner on Wageningen Campus.
Fees 1
  EARLY-BIRD FEE 2 REGULAR FEE
PE&RC / WIMEK / WASS / EPS / VLAG / WIAS PhD candidates with an approved TSP € 395,- € 445,-
PE&RC Postdocs and staff of the above mentioned Graduate Schools € 790,- € 840,-
All other academic participants € 830,- € 880,-
Non-academic participants € 1580,- € 1630,-

1 The course fee includes a reader, coffee/tea, and lunches. It does not include accommodation (NB: options for accommodation are given above)
2 The Early-Bird Fee applies to anyone who REGISTERS ON OR BEFORE 30 September 2024

Note:

  • If you need an invoice to complete your payment, please send an email to office.pe@wur.nl, including ALL relevant details that should be mentioned on the invoice (e.g., purchase order no., specific addresses, attendees, etc.).
  • The Early-Bird policy is such that the moment of REGISTRATION (and not payment) is leading for determining the fee that applies to you.
  • Please make sure that your payment is arranged within two weeks after your registration.
  • It is the participant's responsibility to make sure that he/she (or his/her secretary) completes the payment correctly and in time.
PE&RC Cancellation Conditions
  • Up to 4 (four) weeks prior to the start of the course, cancellation is free of charge.
  • Up to 2 (two) weeks prior to the start of the course, 50% of the course fee of  will be charged.
  • In case of cancellation within two weeks prior to the start of the course or no show, 100% of the participation fee will be charged. For PhD's this implies they must pay the regular fee of "All other academic participants".

Note: If you would like to cancel your registration, ALWAYS inform us and do not assume that by NOT paying the participation fee, your registration is automatically cancelled, because it isn't (and do note that you will be kept to the cancellation conditions).

More information

Ir. Saskia Burgers
Phone: +31 (0) 317 480802
Email: saskia.burgers@wur.nl

Dr. Claudius van de Vijver (PE&RC)
Phone: +31 (0) 317 485116
Email: claudius.vandevijver@wur.nl

Registration

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Please specify all relevant details that should be mentioned on the invoice (e.g., purchase order no., specific addresses, attendees, email contact person)